Chile’s Electricity Story Is Changing: Chile’s Power Demand to 2046

Chile will need roughly 78 percent more electricity in 2046 than it uses today, and the reasons are changing.

On 7 October 2026, the Coordinador Eléctrico Nacional, the independent body that runs Chile’s national grid, published its long-term demand forecast for 2026 to 2046. It is not a headline document. It is a 56-page technical report that feeds directly into how Chile plans new transmission lines and power plants. That is exactly why it matters: these numbers shape where the grid gets built, and who gets connected first.

For most of the last three decades, Chilean electricity planning has followed one customer above all others: large copper mining. That is still true, but the picture is shifting. Data centers are clustering around Santiago. Green hydrogen is moving from strategy papers into demand forecasts. Homes in the south are switching from wood stoves to electric heating, and electric buses already run on Santiago’s streets.

This year’s forecast captures that shift in numbers. Below are the facts and conclusions we found most interesting, and what they say about where Chile’s power system is heading.

1. Electricity demand is growing faster than the economy

The forecast assumes modest economic growth: 1.5 to 2.5 percent a year through 2028, based on the Central Bank’s March 2026 outlook. Yet electricity demand in the central scenario grows by about 4 to 5 percent a year over the same period.

In the central scenario, demand rises from 82.6 terawatt-hours in 2026 to 147.3 terawatt-hours in 2046. The low and high scenarios land at 134.2 and 165.8 terawatt-hours. Even the cautious case means growth of more than 60 percent.

The gap between economic growth and power demand is the real story. Chile is not just growing. It is electrifying: transport, heating, industrial processes and new types of large consumers are all moving onto the grid.

2. Mining is no longer the only story

Large copper mining accounts for about 35 to 36 percent of Chile’s electricity demand in 2026. By 2046, the forecast puts that share at 24 to 26 percent.

That does not mean mines will use less power. The Coordinador is explicit that the drop reflects faster growth elsewhere, not a fall in mining’s own consumption. New projects from Codelco, Antofagasta Minerals, Anglo American and El Abra are all built into the numbers. The report also names desalination as a demand driver in its own right, linked to a decade of water scarcity and mining’s shift to desalinated water.

Desalination is one of seven variables the Coordinador uses to separate its low, middle and high scenarios, alongside economic growth, copper mining, data centers, electric vehicles, heating and green hydrogen. The forecast includes both existing plants and those planned or under construction, and desalination appears as its own category in the large-customer survey. Water utilities and desalination operators such as Aguas Antofagasta, Aguas Pacífico and Cleanairtech Sudamérica reported their projections. The report does not publish a separate figure for desalination demand, but the message is clear: in northern Chile, securing water increasingly means securing electricity.

What changes is the competition. Mining will increasingly share transmission capacity, connection queues and planning attention with data centers, hydrogen producers and growing cities.

3. The peak is moving to winter nights

This may be the most important finding in the report, and the least discussed.

Chile has built one of the most solar-heavy power systems in the world. Solar produces most at midday, and most in summer. The forecast points the other way. By 2046, in the central scenario, the highest demand of the year falls in July at around 10 at night, at about 22.6 gigawatts. Electric heating alone adds roughly 5.2 gigawatts at that hour.

The seasonal gap widens sharply. Today, the July peak is only about 5 to 6 percent above January’s. By 2046, it is 21 to 29 percent higher, depending on the scenario. Annual peak demand roughly doubles over the period, reaching about 20 to 26 gigawatts.

The challenge is no longer only producing more energy. It is having power available when the sun is down and the country is cold. That points directly at storage, firm capacity and stronger transmission.

4. Data centers: a Santiago story

Data center capacity in Chile is estimated at about 398 megawatts in 2025. With the projects identified, it reaches about 1,381 megawatts by 2030, roughly three and a half times today’s level.

Almost all of it sits in one place. About 98 percent of operating capacity is in the Metropolitan Region today, and the region would still hold close to 89 percent in 2030. Valparaíso emerges as a second hub, with about 155 megawatts identified, from almost nothing today.

The bigger picture is that data centers have become a distinct category of large consumer in Chile, alongside mining and industry. The Coordinador links their growth to digital services and artificial intelligence, and flags the segment as a priority for future forecasts because of its size and concentration. For the industry, the main constraint is no longer demand or available renewable energy. It is getting a grid connection in the right place, at the right time.

5. Three new consumers, three different footprints

By 2046, green hydrogen, electric vehicles and electric heating together account for roughly 16 to 22 percent of total demand. Each one loads the grid in a different place and at a different time.

• Green hydrogen reaches 10.7 to 17.7 terawatt-hours a year by 2046, mostly in Antofagasta, and becomes about 8 to 11 percent of national demand. Notably, export-oriented projects are assumed to take only part of their power from the national grid, with the rest from dedicated or hybrid generation.
• Electric vehicles reach 6.5 to 12.7 terawatt-hours a year, concentrated in Santiago. The forecast assumes 2.3 to 5.1 million private electric vehicles and 52,000 to 84,000 electric buses by 2046.
• Electric heating reaches 4.1 to 6.8 terawatt-hours a year. It is concentrated in the south, with Los Lagos showing the largest increase, and almost entirely in the winter months.

Hydrogen is steady, all-day load in the north. Vehicles add peaks around charging times in the cities. Heating piles demand onto cold winter evenings in the south. Planning for all three at once is a different job from planning for a mine.

6. Two centers of gravity, and a forecast with honest limits

In the central scenario, Antofagasta grows from 18.7 to 33.1 terawatt-hours, and the Metropolitan Region from 24.4 to 46.1 terawatt-hours. One is driven by mining and hydrogen, the other by people, buildings and data centers. The south grows fastest in relative terms, with Los Lagos, La Araucanía and Los Ríos roughly doubling from a small base.

Antofagasta also carries the most uncertainty. The gap between the low and high scenarios there reaches about 8.6 terawatt-hours by 2046, mostly because of how fast hydrogen and new industrial projects materialize.

The report is candid about its own limits. It notes that large customers have historically overestimated their demand and brought forward start dates. It also explains that the flattening of large-customer demand after 2035 mainly reflects company project pipelines running out, not an expected slowdown. In other words, the long-term numbers reflect what is visible today, with real uncertainty in both directions.

Why this matters for Chile

The forecast describes a grid that is becoming more diverse, more urban and more seasonal. Mining remains the backbone, but it is no longer the only customer the system is planned around.

Three conclusions stand out:

• Grid access becomes a competitive resource. Mines, data centers and hydrogen projects will compete for transmission and connection capacity, especially in Antofagasta and around Santiago. Companies that plan their connection early will move faster.
• The opportunity is in timing, not just volume. Winter-night peaks in a solar-heavy system create long-term demand for storage, firm capacity, transmission and grid technology.
• The forecast is a planning tool, not a promise. Project-level numbers move every year. Companies should read the trend, then test it against their own site, timeline and connection point.

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