Chile Mining Project Pipeline – Potentialy Exceeding USD$80B

Last year it was reported by the country copper commission, Cochilco, that mining investments are projected to reach $65.71 billion between 2023 and 2032. This may be adjusted upwards in the next reports due to recent announcements highlighting a new cycle of large mining investments in Chile.

Recent announcements from this year include $13.7 billion from BHP, $7.57 billion from Antofagasta Minerals, and $7.5 billion from Freeport and Codelco to expand El Abra. According to Plusmining, Chile’s copper project portfolio exceeds $84 billion, representing 53% of Latin America’s total mining investments, followed by Peru USD$32b (21%) and Argentina USD$22B (14%).

BHP Investment Announcement

BHP anticipates a global copper deficit of 10 million metric tons by 2035, prompting plans to invest $11 billion or more in expanding operations at Chilean mines, including Escondida, Spence, and Cerro Colorado. The company outlined a $10.7–$14.7 billion budget over the next decade, targeting projects to offset declining ore grades and sustain copper production amid growing demand driven by electric vehicles and data centers. BHP’s copper output is expected to drop by 300,000 tons to 1.6 million tons annually by 2030, with Escondida’s decline peaking in 2025.

To counter this, BHP is focusing on advanced processing technologies, staggered project execution, and pressing Chile’s government for faster permitting reforms. Initial production from new projects is expected between 2027 and 2032, with peak investments in 2030–2031. Despite exploring acquisitions, such as a failed $49 billion bid for Anglo American, BHP prioritizes organic growth at its existing mines. The company has also shifted away from selling Cerro Colorado and is exploring seawater leaching solutions. However, underground expansion at Escondida remains unfeasible at current copper prices.

Antofagasta Minerals Investment Announcement

Chilean miner Antofagasta plans to invest $3.5 billion in 2025, marking one of its largest investments, as part of a $7.5 billion five-year plan focused on Chile and Peru. Key projects include the $4.4 billion Nueva Centinela expansion, adding 144,000 tonnes of copper-equivalent annually, upgrades to the molybdenum plant, and the development of Esperanza Sur with autonomous trucks. Antofagasta recently inaugurated a $2 billion desalination plant at Los Pelambres, addressing long-term drought issues, and seeks permits for a $1.2 billion Zaldívar mine extension to extend operations to 2051. The company also plans $40–$50 million annually for maintenance in Peru, the U.S., and Canada.

El Abra Investment Announcement

Freeport McMoRan plans to invest $7.5 billion to expand the El Abra copper mine in Chile, with development expected to take 7–8 years due to permitting requirements. The project includes a new concentrator plant, water pipelines, and desalination facilities, aiming to produce 750 million pounds of copper and 9 million pounds of molybdenum annually. Freeport owns 51% of El Abra, with the rest held by Codelco, which supports the expansion.

Lithium Investments

Cochilco projects lithium investments in Chile to reach $2.1 billion between 2023 and 2026, with approximately 50% concentrated in 2024, followed by decreasing investment in 2025 and 2026 based on the current project pipeline.

Three major projects are set to contribute a combined annual capacity of 115,700 tons of lithium carbonate and 17,100 tons of lithium hydroxide:

• SQM’s Carmen Expansion and Optimization (starting in 2024)
• Minera Salar Blanco’s Proyecto Blanco (a Codelco subsidiary, beginning in 2025)
• SIMCO’s Maricunga Salts Production (slated for 2026)

Additionally, the government plans to tender special lithium operating contracts (CEOLs) to private operators in 2025, potentially expanding the project pipeline in future years.

Conclusion

The Chilean mining industry has been grappling with significant challenges over the last few years. Political pressures to change royalties created uncertainty limiting investment in previous years. Technical issues with bringing new brownfield projects online have limited Codelco’s ability to maintain production. Lastly, copper grades have declined considerably compared to 20 years ago, requiring companies to process more material to produce the same amount of copper.

Looking ahead, Chile has the potential to be in a strong position if it can minimize negative publicity, streamline environmental approvals, secure new lithium project agreements, and advance its copper project pipeline.  Recent announcements show the strength of the project pipeline which should set off a record investment in Chile’s mining industry between 2025 and 2032.

Chile is entering a transformative era of mining investment, led by companies like BHP, Antofagasta Minerals, and Freeport-Codelco. With a robust pipeline of projects and an unparalleled position in the global copper market, the nation is set to remain a cornerstone of the mining industry for decades to come.

As these investments materialize, Chile will not only bolster its economy but also set a benchmark for innovation, sustainability, and collaboration in mining. These investments are more than just numbers; they represent thousands of new jobs, infrastructure development, and economic opportunities for Chile.

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