Inside Chile’s USD$104b Mining Project Pipeline

Chile continues to sit at the centre of the global copper story. As electrification, renewable energy, data centres, and artificial intelligence drive long-term demand, the ability to sustain copper supply has become a strategic issue worldwide. Few jurisdictions matter as much as Chile in this context. Cochilco’s Mining Investment Project Portfolio 2025–2034 provides a clear signal of how the industry is responding to this challenge and where capital is being deployed over the next decade.

The project pipeline is growing….

The first headline is scale. Chile’s mining investment portfolio now totals USD$ 104.5b, an increase of roughly USD$21b compared to last year’s outlook. This is the second year in a row that the pipeline has grown, which is notable after a long period marked by delays, redesigns, and investor caution. The increase is largely explained by the return of private-sector projects, particularly in copper, supported by stronger long-term price assumptions and the growing recognition that new global supply will be difficult to bring online elsewhere. In simple terms, companies are moving again, not because conditions are easy, but because securing future production is becoming unavoidable.

Greenfield vs Brownfield

A defining feature of the current portfolio is the clear dominance of brownfield investment over greenfield development. Approximately 81% of total projected investment is allocated to brownfield projects, including replacements, expansions, and life-extension initiatives at existing operations. Greenfield projects account for only about 19%. This reflects clearly that companies do not want to take on the full geological, permitting, and social risk of new mines. Operators are prioritising assets they already know well. Interestingly, the report shows that these brownfield expansions are often more capital-intensive than greenfield projects, particularly for concentrators, at roughly USD 24,000 per tonne of incremental copper versus around USD 18,000 per tonne for greenfield developments. Retrofitting and expanding mature operations brings its own complexity, from water and energy constraints to tighter environmental standards, and those challenges are clearly showing up in capital requirements.

Addition to the project pipeline…

Several new and newly formalized projects help explain the expansion of the pipeline. The growth of the pipeline is also tied to a handful of important new and newly formalised projects. On the copper side, large-scale expansions such as Collahuasi’s Nueva Concentradora Rosario (fourth line) and Escondida’s Nueva Concentradora Los Colorados have entered the portfolio with multi-billion-dollar capital commitments, placing them among the most significant investments in the country over the next decade. These projects are critical to sustaining output at two of Chile’s most important copper districts. Beyond copper, the incorporation of Salares Altoandinos, a lithium project promoted by ENAMI in partnership with Rio Tinto, stands out with an estimated investment of approximately USD$3.2 b. Its inclusion is particularly telling, as it confirms that lithium has moved beyond policy debate and into Chile’s formal, medium-term mining investment pipeline under the new public-private development model.

Conclusion

For mining suppliers and technology companies looking to expand into Chile, this outlook presents both challenges and opportunities. On the challenge side, although the project pipeline is massive and growing, a large share of investment is concentrated after 2030 and classified as early-stage or “potential,” meaning progress will depend on permitting, water and energy availability, financing, and community engagement.

However, the opportunity is substantial for companies that understand Chile’s operating environment. The dominance of brownfield projects favors suppliers with expertise in plant expansions, water and desalination systems, tailings management, energy solutions, automation, and productivity-enhancing technologies. Success in Chile increasingly requires a long-term, local presence, the ability to integrate into complex operating sites, and a clear value proposition focused on execution. For those prepared to operate at that level, Chile remains one of the most attractive and resilient mining markets globally.

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