The Andean Trifecta: Where Copper’s Future Gets Built

The global copper market has a structural supply problem. Demand is climbing, driven by electrification, EVs, data centres, and the energy transition, while the pipeline of new supply remains thin.

The core issue is that significant greenfield copper discoveries have become genuinely rare. Most copper production growth over the past two decades has come from brownfield expansion — optimising, extending, and squeezing more from existing operations rather than building new ones from scratch. Greenfield projects require finding a world-class deposit in the first place, then navigating environmental approvals, community engagement, permitting processes, and multi-billion dollar financing — all before a shovel hits the ground. That process routinely takes 15 to 20 years from discovery to first production, and many projects don’t make it. The result is a global supply pipeline that has struggled to keep pace with demand.

That’s why what’s happening in Latin America right now matters. Across Argentina, Chile, and Peru, a wave of greenfield copper projects is moving from study to construction. The numbers are significant: 30 projects, over US$71bn in combined investment, and the potential to add more than 4 million tonnes of new annual copper production to the market over the next decade.

For mining technology and services companies, this isn’t a trend to monitor from a distance. It’s the opportunity to get in early.

A note on risk

Before the project rundowns: these timelines are targets, not guarantees. Greenfield copper projects at this scale carry real execution risk, community opposition has stalled projects in Peru for years, permitting processes can shift with changes in government, financing conditions affect construction decisions, and capital cost estimates have a long history of being revised upward. Several projects on this list have already experienced delays and may experience more. The pipeline represents genuine opportunity, but it should be read as directional, not as a confirmed production schedule.

Argentina — The Emerging Frontier

Argentina currently produces no copper at scale. That is about to change. Seven greenfield projects are targeting production before 2034, representing US$30.9bn in investment and 1.2Mt/y of new supply. The government’s RIGI program — offering fiscal stability, foreign exchange access, and customs benefits — has materially improved the investment environment and is a direct enabler for several of these projects.

The headline names:

• Los Azules (McEwen Copper / Rio Tinto / Stellantis) — One of the country’s most advanced projects, targeting 205,000 t/y in early years. Feasibility complete, RIGI approved, construction start targeted for 2026. First copper: 2030.
• Taca Taca (First Quantum Minerals) — 291,000 t/y average over the first decade, 35-year mine life, US$5.25bn capex. Now First Quantum’s primary growth project following the closure of Cobre Panamá.
• Vicuña District (BHP / Lundin Mining, 50/50) — Combining the Josemaría and Filo del Sol deposits into what the partners describe as one of the most significant copper discoveries in decades. Total development estimated at US$18.1bn across three phases, with potential for 500,000+ t/y across the district.
• El Pachón (Glencore) — 280,000 t/y over a 30-year mine life, US$9.5bn capex. Glencore is positioning this alongside Agua Rica as the foundation for producing close to 1 million t/y in Argentina within 10–15 years.

Chile — Sustaining the World’s Largest Copper Producer

Chile remains the world’s largest copper producer, but output is under pressure as deposits age and grades decline. Twelve greenfield projects are in the pipeline, targeting a combined US$21.7bn in investment and 874,000 t/y of new supply.

Key projects to watch:

• Santo Domingo (Capstone Copper) — 106,000 t/y average over first seven years, US$2.3bn capex. Final investment decision expected H2 2026. Located 35km from Capstone’s operating Mantoverde mine, enabling shared infrastructure.
• Vizcachitas (Los Andes Copper) — 183,000 t/y in early years, US$2.44bn capex. One of the largest undeveloped copper deposits not controlled by a major. Permitting is the current critical path.
• Nueva Unión (Teck / Newmont, 50/50) — 224,000 t/y copper plus gold and molybdenum, US$7.2bn capex across three phases. Longer runway, but world-class scale.
• Marimaca (Marimaca Copper) — Smaller but near-term: 50,000 t/y cathode, US$587m capex, 39% IRR. Environmental approval secured Q4 2025, FID targeted H2 2026.

Peru — High Potential, Higher Complexity

Peru is already the world’s second-largest copper producer, and its greenfield pipeline is the largest of the three countries — 11 projects, US$18.8bn in investment, and approximately 1.9Mt/y of potential new supply. The complexity is real: community opposition, permitting delays, and political instability have pushed projects back repeatedly. But momentum is building.

Key projects:

• La Granja (First Quantum 55% / Rio Tinto 45%) — One of the world’s largest undeveloped copper deposits. An updated resource estimate confirmed 4.8 billion M&I tonnes at 0.48% copper — 23 million tonnes of contained copper. Production potential of approximately 500,000 t/y over a 40-year mine life. Feasibility studies targeted for 2028.
• Michiquillay (Southern Copper) — 225,000 t/y, US$2.5bn capex, 25+ year mine life. Exploration approximately 39% complete as of Q1 2025.
• Tía María (Southern Copper) — After years of delays, Peru reauthorized this project in late 2025. Now 24% complete with US$790m committed. Targeting 120,000 t/y cathode by 2027.

Why Mining Tech Companies Need to Be Here

The combined scale of what’s coming across these three countries is hard to overstate. Projects of this size — billion-dollar capex, multi-decade mine lives, often in remote or technically challenging environments — require sophisticated technology and services partners at every stage: water management, energy systems, process optimisation, automation, environmental monitoring, and more.

But the opportunity is bigger than any single project. Argentina, Chile, and Peru together form one of the most compelling expansion platforms available to international technology and services companies today. The region offers scale, longevity, and a concentration of tier-one operators and developers that few markets anywhere in the world can match. For companies looking to grow their international footprint, this is a region that rewards early commitment.

The companies that establish themselves now, building relationships, understanding local regulatory environments, and positioning ahead of construction decisions, will be significantly better placed than those who arrive once projects are already in execution.

Argentina, Chile, and Peru aren’t just the world’s copper heartland. For the next decade, they are where the industry gets built — and where the smartest mining technology and service companies are already planting their flag.

Ax Legal helps industrial technology, engineering, and service companies to navigate the legal and commercial aspects of operating their business in Latin America. With deep knowledge of the industrial and natural resource sectors, we provide actionable and practical advice to help streamline our clients’ entries into Latin America, improve how they operate in the region, and to protect their interests.

Over the years, our team of legal and commercial advisors have developed a track record of working with companies of all sizes from Australia, Canada, the U.S., and Europe. The one common factor that connects our clients is that they are leaders in their field, providing innovative technologies and services to the industrial sectors.

To better understand how we can support you in the Region, please contact Cody Mcfarlane at cmm@ax.legal